Josephine, Arizona storms and Four Corners flooding risk: Weather briefing for October 22, 2026

Subtropical Storm Josephine and a powerful Pacific storm are setting the tone for Thursday. The National Weather Service said Josephine was still bringing significant coastal flooding, dangerous marine conditions and beach erosion along portions of the Eastern Seaboard, while a Pacific storm interacting with tropical moisture was spreading excessive rainfall, severe thunderstorms and high elevation snow across California, the Southwest and the Four Corners.

The strongest U.S. severe storm risk today is centered on southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center placed that corridor in a slight risk area through early Friday, with hail around 2 inches, damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible. Farther east, Josephine remained well offshore but continued to drive rough surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding concerns along parts of the Eastern Seaboard. Outside the United States, flooding in Thailand remained an active disaster.

Past 24 Hours

Flooding continued to disrupt parts of Thailand on Thursday after days of high water. Ongoing impacts remained clear in regional reporting.

In the United States over the past day, Josephine strengthened coastal impacts along the East Coast while the Pacific storm expanded rain and thunderstorms into California and the Southwest. The National Weather Service said conditions should begin improving along the East Coast later Thursday as Josephine moves farther out to sea.

What's Happening Now

Southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico faces the most concentrated severe storm threat in the country today. The Storm Prediction Center placed that area in a slight risk valid through early Friday, saying scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners, with hail around 2 inches, damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible. Along the southern California coast, a brief tornado and isolated wind damage are also possible with the strongest low-topped thunderstorms.

Along the East Coast, Josephine remained offshore, but the National Weather Service said the storm was still creating significant coastal flooding impacts, dangerous marine conditions and beach erosion along portions of the Eastern Seaboard.

Wildfire smoke also remained a national issue in the United States. AirNow posted a system alert for wildfire smoke affecting air quality in multiple states and directed users to its Fire and Smoke Map for local conditions. At the same time, the National Interagency Fire Center reported eight large fires being suppressed nationwide, with 552,897 acres burned in large fires as of Wednesday morning.

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center was also tracking Tropical Storm Vance in the eastern Pacific. Vance had 50 mph winds early Thursday and no coastal watches or warnings were in effect.

Outlook Through Tonight

The main forecast risk through tonight is the severe weather and flash flood setup across the Southwest and Four Corners. The Storm Prediction Center said scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the region, with the most intense storms likely across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. The Weather Prediction Center also placed portions of southern Utah into southwestern Colorado in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall, with a broader slight risk across parts of the Four Corners and southern Nevada.

The same upper-level storm will keep unsettled weather going into California tonight. The National Weather Service said gusty winds, showers and mountain snow would expand across parts of California and the Southwest through Thursday. Coastal sections of southern California could also see a low-topped thunderstorm or two before the system shifts inland.

On the East Coast, coastal flooding, dangerous surf and beach erosion concerns are expected to continue into tonight as Josephine accelerates away from the United States. For Josephine and Vance, the National Hurricane Center said no coastal watches or warnings were in effect early Thursday.