Welcome to the 2026 Hurricane Season: Outlook, NOAA Cone Changes, and How to Prepare
Hurricane Season • Weather Preparedness • 2026 Outlook
Welcome to the 2026 Hurricane Season: Outlook, NOAA Cone Changes, and How to Prepare
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has officially started, and even though NOAA is forecasting a quieter-than-average year, preparedness still matters. A below-normal season does not mean a no-impact season. It only takes one storm affecting your community to make the season dangerous.
This year also brings important changes from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, including updates to the forecast cone graphic, new storm surge products for Hawaii, an experimental cone product, a mobile-friendly NHC front page, and other forecast product improvements. Here is what to know for the 2026 season, what has changed, and how WeatherScope can help you stay ahead of the storm.
NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
NOAA is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026. The official outlook calls for a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
NOAA’s predicted storm ranges include:
- 8–14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher
- 3–6 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher
- 1–3 major hurricanes, meaning Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds of 111 mph or higher
For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA says the 2026 outlook reflects several competing factors, including expected El Niño conditions that tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters, and weaker-than-average trade winds that can support tropical development.
The key takeaway: this year may be less active overall, but the seasonal outlook does not predict where storms will go or whether a storm will make landfall. Residents along the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands should still prepare early.
What changed with NOAA’s cone of uncertainty in 2026?
One of the biggest changes this year is the updated National Hurricane Center forecast cone graphic. Starting with the 2026 season, the operational cone now includes tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas, not just coastal areas.
This is important because hurricane impacts are not limited to the shoreline. Strong winds, flooding rain, tornadoes, power outages, and dangerous conditions can extend far inland. By adding inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic, NHC is giving communities a clearer view of where tropical storm and hurricane wind hazards may affect people away from the immediate coast.
Key cone graphic changes for 2026
- The operational cone now includes both coastal and inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.
- The update applies to the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- The cone uses one shading style for the full 5-day outlook cone.
- The legend includes new symbology for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect.
- The 2026 Atlantic cone is slightly smaller than 2025, reflecting the annual update to recent NHC forecast error data.
It is also important to remember what the cone does and does not show. The cone represents the likely track area of the storm’s center. It does not show the full size of the storm, the entire wind field, flooding risk, storm surge risk, tornado risk, or rainfall footprint. Dangerous conditions can and often do occur outside the cone.
NHC is also testing a new experimental cone
In addition to the operational cone change, NHC is issuing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone during the 2026 season. Instead of building the cone from circles around each forecast point, the experimental cone uses ellipses to better account for both speed errors and direction errors in the forecast track.
The experimental version is designed to represent a wider range of possible track outcomes. NHC says this experimental cone uses the 90th percentile of recent along-track and cross-track forecast errors, compared with the traditional operational cone methodology based on the 67th percentile of forecast errors.
For users, this means there may be more forecast cone graphics to understand during the season. The operational cone remains the primary public-facing cone, while the experimental cone is being tested and reviewed.
Other NOAA and NHC changes for the 2026 hurricane season
The cone update is not the only change this year. NHC’s 2026 product and service updates include several additional improvements designed to make tropical information easier to understand and access.
New storm surge products for Hawaii
NOAA and NHC expanded storm surge products for the main Hawaiian Islands in 2026. These changes include storm surge watches and warnings, a peak storm surge forecast graphic, and a potential storm surge flooding map for Hawaii.
Storm surge is one of the most dangerous hurricane hazards because it can push life-threatening water inland from the shoreline. Expanding these products gives Hawaii residents and emergency managers more tools to understand coastal flooding threats during tropical cyclone events.
Mobile-friendly NHC front page
NHC is also working on a more mobile-friendly and accessible version of its website. A refreshed version of the NHC front page is expected to be available through the NHC mobile site, making it easier for users to access tropical information from phones, tablets, and desktops.
Updated tropical disturbance symbols
NHC is updating the way it displays disturbances on the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook when development is not expected. Instead of showing every low-chance disturbance with the same yellow X, systems with a near 0% chance of development in both the 2-day and 7-day outlook periods can be marked with a gray X. This helps users better distinguish between low development chances and development that is essentially not expected.
Experimental graphical marine wind warnings
NHC is also introducing experimental graphical marine wind warnings for marine users. These graphics are designed to show official marine wind warnings across tropical ocean domains, helping mariners better understand areas of hazardous wind conditions.
Preparedness still matters, even in a quieter season
The most dangerous mistake people can make during a below-normal outlook is assuming they do not need to prepare. Seasonal forecasts describe overall activity across the basin. They do not tell you whether a storm will affect your city, your neighborhood, or your home.
Before a storm threatens, take time to:
- Know whether your home is vulnerable to storm surge, freshwater flooding, or wind damage.
- Review your evacuation zone and local evacuation routes.
- Create a family communication plan.
- Build or refresh an emergency supply kit with food, water, medication, flashlights, batteries, chargers, important documents, and pet supplies.
- Have more than one way to receive alerts, including local emergency alerts, NOAA/NWS updates, and trusted weather apps.
- Keep your phone charged and download important maps or documents before weather deteriorates.
- Follow instructions from local emergency management officials if watches, warnings, or evacuation orders are issued.
Hurricanes bring multiple hazards at once: wind, storm surge, flooding rain, tornadoes, dangerous surf, rip currents, and power outages. Preparing early gives you more time to make good decisions before conditions become urgent.
How WeatherScope helps you stay ahead of the storm
WeatherScope is built to help users track weather threats with clarity, speed, and confidence. During hurricane season, that means giving you tools to monitor storms before they arrive, watch conditions change in real time, and stay aware of alerts that may affect your area.
With WeatherScope, users can follow tropical systems, monitor live radar, view storm movement, check local conditions, and stay informed with weather alerts and forecast tools. WeatherScope also includes interactive maps, real-time radar, storm tracking, lightning alerts, customizable radar themes, Apple Watch radar, and forecast overlays that make it easier to understand what is happening around you.
WeatherScope hurricane season tools include:
- Live radar to track rain bands, thunderstorms, and changing precipitation patterns.
- Storm tracking to help follow developing systems and severe weather threats.
- Interactive weather maps for watching storms evolve over time.
- Customizable alerts so you can stay aware of changing conditions.
- Lightning alerts to help you stay safer during thunderstorms.
- Forecast overlays for wind, precipitation, pressure, humidity, cloud cover, and more.
- Apple Watch radar for quick storm awareness directly from your wrist.
- Custom radar color themes so you can personalize how you view radar data.
WeatherScope is not a replacement for official evacuation orders or instructions from emergency management, but it is a powerful companion for staying weather-aware. Use WeatherScope alongside official NOAA, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and local emergency management updates.
Do not focus only on the category
A hurricane’s category describes wind speed, but wind is only one part of the threat. Some of the most dangerous impacts can come from storm surge, inland flooding, tornadoes, and long-duration power outages. A weaker storm can still produce life-threatening flooding, while a stronger storm can bring widespread wind damage far from the coast.
That is why the 2026 cone changes matter. By adding inland watches and warnings to the operational cone, NHC is emphasizing that tropical cyclone wind hazards can extend well beyond coastal communities.
Final thoughts for the 2026 hurricane season
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may be forecast to run below normal, but preparedness should stay above normal. Review your plan, know your risk, monitor trusted sources, and make sure you have the tools you need before a storm forms.
WeatherScope can help you stay aware before, during, and after tropical threats by giving you live radar, storm tracking, alerts, and weather visualization tools in one app.
Track the season with WeatherScope and stay ahead of the storm.
